Online Forex King- Currency Trading.

Currency Trading Advice, Broker Reviews & News from a Former City FX Trader

More Serene than Stress

Posted on | July 25, 2010 by larry | No Comments

Risk appetite generally improved again last week and there was little sign of nervousness ahead of the EU bank stress test announced late on Friday.
There was little late reaction participants appearing to await the digestion of the results over the weekend. The majority of subsequent comment seems to indicate that the test was too soft. Just 7 out of 91 banks failed the test but left many questions unanswered. Importantly Sovereign debt default was not included and the measure of reduced growth levels was far less dramatic than many would have liked to have seen.
It remains to be seen next week if the markets take the view that this was indeed to soft a test or that as the test is over and done with it is no longer an event risk for the market.I would favor the former but equity markets shrugged off any bad news last week preferring to focus on strong company data . This rather than comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke which indicates the Federal reserves ongoing concern about the strength of recovery in many areas. In Europe economic news tended to better than expected. German IFO numbers and in the UK more buoyant retail sales and 2nd Quarter GDP which was much better than the market anticipated.The technical picture improved for US equities and commodity currencies faired well.
All this leaves the forex market without too much to get its teeth into and few commentators with any real solid views as to any major trend moves. For the time being it seems more likely that the USD/ EUR will gravitate around these levels until either a real move higher in equities or another big sell off. The US currency has lost its appeal recently and as I have mentioned before while it may be temporary the Euro area problems are at least for the time being on a back burner.
Another week of similar trading would probably see a general sell off in volatility and narrowly mixed Forex markets for more of the summer.

Category: Market Comment/Analysis

Summer ……and the shorts are taken out.

Posted on | July 18, 2010 by larry | No Comments

On the one hand there was the usual forex market reaction to Risk aversion sales, on the other there was the stellar performance of the Euro. Yes one would assume that many Euro Shorts self included felt the pain last week. Despite weaker equity markets the Euro /USD powered over 1.30 at one point and closed around 1.2930. As commodities and gold took a hit not surprisingly the Canadian dollar faired worst losing almost 5 % against the Yen and a little less against the Euro.
Equity markets and the dollar focused on slightly weak data rather than Corporate earnings and the Euro further benefitted from better than expected bond auctions in Greece and Spain.Data from Germany remains solid  and this has helped keep a more positive Euro mood.
However, I do believe that it will only be a matter of time before lagging growth and other strains on the weaker Euro members reemerges to the detriment of the Euro. Next weeks banking stress tests could also prove a stumbling block.
All in all the picture for growth remains cloudy with signs also of a slowing in China. Thus we continue to see equity markets having good and bad weeks with the US dollar and Yen reacting accordingly in the main.
Technically the US dollar still has further to fall before perhaps events turn things positive again which might be a few weeks off yet.
 

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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Easy-Forex Upgrades its Forex App to be Compatible with iPhone 4 with iOS4

Posted on | July 13, 2010 by admin | No Comments

Easy Forex- who in our humble opinion have the best iphone forex app for trading currencies on your iPhone (or iPod Touch) have upgraded their application so that it is compatible with the new iPhone 4 hand sets that use iOS4. This app is FREE from the iTunes App Store. Even if you don´t trade with Easy Forex, we´d recommend the app- you don´t need to trade for real to use the real time charting.

iphone forex

We have included screenshots of the app below

iphone forex
 Currency Rates
Get real time rates for multiple currencies and commodities including Oil, Gold and Silver.

Charts
Analyze real-time charts on your touch screen. Rotate your iPhone and go from vertical to horizontal chart views.

Inside Viewer™
Exclusive to easy-forex® this is a great trading tool that gives you a unique market insight on the traders on Easy Forex. See which trading pairs are most popularly traded, in which direction, and see the aggregate deal structure of all open deals.

iphone forex

Financial Calendar
Stay posted with breaking Economic Indicators. Especially good for staying on top of  the fundamentals, find out what is affecting the market as soom as it happens.

Outlooks
Read Daily and Weekly Outlooks from wherever you are.

My positions
If you trade with Easy Forex, login securely and get a real time report of ‘My Position’ with all your deal details. Check your Account Statement’s free balance, total margin and profit/loss. Close deals and cancel limit orders.

Category: Mobile Forex
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Equity market recovery points the way and in World Cup will the Dutch effort go to pot.

Posted on | July 11, 2010 by larry | No Comments

The forex markets continued to follow the improvement in risk sentiment in the recent time honored fashion.
The US dollar and Japanese Yen were weaker and the commodity currencies especially the Ausie Dollar enjoyed a good week.
The US dollar Euro touched levels just over 1.27 as equity markets surged with the US markets enjoying their best week for the whole year. Notable absentee at the party was Sterling which failed to make headway against a weaker dollar and lost over 5% against the rampant Ausie.
So where to next and can stock markets continue to lead the process.Well the pessimists will point to a low volume rally in oversold stocks and still talk of the double dip. In truth for equities the answer may lie in 2nd quarter Corporate numbers which will begin to be announced.. This will undoubtedly hold the key to forex moves for the dollar and Yen.
Technically the Euro/USD has good resistance over 1.27 and one feels that risk sentiment would need another good leg up to provoke such a rally and perhaps a test of 1.30 and higher. On balance I favor a scenario of another leg down for both.
Statistics next week do not offer too much scope for any major surprises but we will see.As we move into the holiday season European problems are not in focus but undoubtedly will return at some stage.
Finally we have the World Cup final tonight where at least Europe has once gain dominated.Odds favor a Spanish victory prompted from Barcelona but without a flag in sight or a firecracker heard in Cataluña.

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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Gloom and Doom as equity markets fall and Germany makes the Semis

Posted on | July 4, 2010 by larry | No Comments

Stock markets around the world once again called the shots for the forex market.
New 2010 lows for many equity markets caused the largely usual knee jerks in currency markets. The Yen and Swiss Franc were the biggest winners particularly at the expense of the commodity currencies(AUS and CAN Dollars) some 5% plus gains.
Where things did turn out a little different was the EURO and GBP which made up ground against the US Dollar the Euro closing the week at close to 1.2550. Already commentators are talking the decoupling of the Euro US dollar relationship visa vi general risk aversion. On balance though that seems a little to early to call on one weeks price action. Gold also faired unexpectedly badly closing down at just over 1200 .
All the statistics were pretty much market negative and it is difficult to see any real change next week.
It seems as if something will need to rescue the stock markets for things to stop getting worse.Technically the picture seems to be getting slowly more adverse for equity markets and while Forex markets can decouple from this it looks unlikely. The end result could see a reemergence of US Dollar strength against the Euro.
As for the World Cup , Holland Spain would be nice but would you really bet against the Germans

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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A Sterling performance by GBP but more of a YEN for the YEN

Posted on | June 27, 2010 by larry | No Comments

There was a mixed bag of performances in forex markets last week.
Equity markets failed to sustain any sort of rally and indeed lost ground on the week.This prompted the best performance from the Japanese Yen hitting a low of 89.20 against the US Dollar
Elsewhere the usual market scenario on Risk Aversion did not quite play out as usual.The US Dollar was generally weaker over the week with the exception of commodity currencies. Sterling which I tipped last week did perform exceptionally well considering the equity markets. It did indeed manage a break eventually through 1.50 closing at 1.5065 GBP/USD and reaching levels above 1.22 against the EURO.The UK budget was well received by markets and commentators as the UK seems to be making big efforts to address its deficit problems.
Early in the week things had looked a little better as the Peoples Bank of China pointed to more flexibility on the Chinese Currency. However, reactions to this soon evaporated and it appears little more than a peace offering ahead of the G20 meeting.
I suspect it will again be all eyes on equity markets this week. Technically it looks a decidedly dodgy for markets so we can expect generally the usual currency plays. That said the US Dollar as I mentioned was somewhat detached from the norm last week so this needs to be watched.
There is a wealth of statistics out next week all capable of generating some reaction. Far to many to go into when I am sunning myself on a beach anyway.
On balance though I do remain concerned about the equity markets in the short term and we could at least see another 4 or 5 % off markets if this weeks figures prove negative with the customary knee jerk for forex markets
As for the world cup surely the markets are pointing to an English victory over the Germans……….please……..and does anyone know who trades the Ghana Cedi .But my tip for the week is Chile, have you seen their stock markets performance…watch out Brazil

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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Forex World Cup Report

Posted on | June 20, 2010 by larry | No Comments

As if to prove they are kings like their currency the Swiss beat Spain in the Football World Cup (That’s soccer for our American friends). France capitulate, Germany trip up badly, Italy very very poor and England well, the usual mess and progress goes down to the wire.
This could almost be the currency report this year……….

In the forex world things were much the same. The Swiss franc certainly shone the most, the Swiss National Bank signaling a break in intervention. Elsewhere it was echoes of the previous week. Equity markets held up well and so too the Euro. Commodity currencies ( Ausie and Canadian) better, all at the expense of the Yen and dollar. That said the Euro/USD is close to reasonable resistance under 1.24. It would need continued confidence in the equity markets next week and risk generally to continue any progress.
It could prove to be an interesting week for the British Pound. The long awaited emergency budget will be introduced.The usual drip feed leaks of what is to be expected seems to point to the Chancellor Osborne trying to get all the bad news in terms of cuts in spending and taxes out all together. They may be fazed in but should get a good response from the market, all be the flip side on growth will be a negative.
On balance I feel the risk reward right now could be for a good move up in GBP/USD ( CABLE). Maybe owning some short term GBP Call Options could be a good play.

In the longer term I still think there will be another shake out in equity markets. The Euro situation while somewhat quieter is a sleeping giant of a problem. It maybe that a double dip does not occur in Europe bailed out by China and Emerging Markets. However, the austerity packages are definitely causing extreme economic pain for many countries. One fears that there will inevitably be social unrest this summer. To what degree may be the deciding factor for markets.

Elsewhere, notably gold made another high of 1263.75 against the dollar with little or no fuss. One suspects that given the excuse of some crisis we could finish the year much higher. On the other hand maybe it was just all those World Cup medals and football WAGS presents.They love their bling.

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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eToro World Cup Forex Promotion Deposit and Get a Wide Screen TV

Posted on | June 16, 2010 by gideon | No Comments

Forex Promotion News
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  • The TV will be counted as a trading bonus in your real trading account, according to the following terms:
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    3. 50” TV will be counted as if you received $5000 trading bonus.
Category: Brokers
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Markets look East for Hope

Posted on | June 13, 2010 by larry | No Comments

Forex markets continued to trade off the back of equity markets and risk sentiment generally. The good news all came from the far east in terms of a big jump in Chinese exports and Japan 1st quarter GDP revision.
This helped steady and eventually rally the equity markets. So it was a softer dollar and yen against the Euro but even more so against the commodity currencies.The Ausie dollar in particular against the Yen.

At this stage it seems far to early to be thinking in terms of a low for equities even if we do see further improvements next week. For sure forex markets will continue to take their lead from risk sentiment and technically both equity market and forex market trends may just be enjoying a breather before we see an about turn for sentiment and a return of dollar strength.
This week sees a good deal of inflation data so probably less market sensitive although the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index my shed more light on the mood in Europe.
Sterling faired less well last week on some disappointing data but has enjoyed a good run against the Euro so some pull back was to be expected. It does look as though BP will be needing quite a lot of dollars at some time in the future but difficult to see how that might directly impact the currency markets at this stage. The UK budget the week after next will definitely be a major market watch.
 

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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Appetite for US Dollar increases on Hungary

Posted on | June 6, 2010 by larry | No Comments

Most of the weeks dramatic action was reserved for Friday.
The bad news for equity markets and the Euro began with some strange comments from Hungary. The prime ministers official spokesman said the economy was in a grave situation and that default on its debt was possible.
The comments ignited fears that a debt crisis could be beginning in Eastern Europe. In a mirror image of Greece it appears that previous economic data had been falsified by the previous government. Hungary of course is not a member of the Euro so its currency the Florint can take some of the strain. However, this was easily enough to unsettle markets.
Close on the heels of this came the much awaited US employment data.The job growth not only came in lower than expected at 431,000 in May but more importantly showed that of those jobs just a paltry 41,000 was in the private sector.
These events left equity markets much weaker the Dow closing some 3% lower to 9930. The Euro fell to a four year low against the US Dollar closing at 1.1970 and 110 against a slightly stronger yen.
The Swiss Franc surged again against the Euro closing under the 1.40 level with the Swiss National Bank fighting a losing battle.
To add further woes to the Euro the Iranian State Television said the central bank had begun the process of reducing their holdings of Euro Reserves from 55% to 20-25%. This was reportedly going to US dollars and gold.Thus far according to their reports some 15 Billion of 45 Billion Euros have been sold. All in all some own goal for a country previously trying to cock a snoop at the US.Dollar.

Technically nothing has changed over the week. The equity markets remain very vulnerable to further sell offs with the Dow possibly targeting 9430 level now. This if it happens increases the likelihood that the forex markets will continue to sell the Euro lower. There remains good resistance between 1.1650 and the 1.1209 ( Key Fibonacci level). A break of the latter technically would signal an attack at the parity level for Euro /US dollar.

Thus far we have heard nothing from the G20 and that leads one to believe that we are in for more of the same over the coming days and weeks.Please do let us know if their is anything on the horizon to change sentiment…………..Now where did I put the can opener

Category: Market Comment/Analysis
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